← Arcanum Sanctorum DTR Store Champ
Fire CielTier 2
at Arcanum Sanctorum DTR Store Champ
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.8%
avg ELO -5.2 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1035
· median 1035
· range 1035–1035
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1035
Q1 1169
Q3 1360
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
